Part five in the series of articles on Critical Thinking.

Larger Scale Systems are strange things indeed. While they can do that which otherwise cannot be done and thus populate our modern world from economies, to military forces, to modern aviation, medicine, transportation, technology sectors……and the list goes on, they impact our lives on a daily basis, and yet we know very little about them. This is due largely to the fact that large Scale Systems behave in ways that fall outside our zone of comprehension, and our educational institutions prefer not to teach generalized, overarching subjects, like Critical Thinking and General Systems Theory that will deliver critical understanding of such systems for some unknown reason.

To clarify what we mean, let us first revisit the definition of what is often termed Large Scale Systems. These entities go by a number of names, such as large scale dynamic systems, complex systems, global systems, Superfunction, and the big picture. We will group all these into “Large Scale Systems” for convenience. Thus we can say that Large Scale Systems are inherently complex because they consists of large numbers of interacting variables. These sets of interacting variables are difficult to understand, and are often ignored by conventional Math and Science, except Military Science as developed by Colonel John Boyd. Scott Page and other members of the Santa Fe Institute have pointed out, for example, that conventional decision theory does little to address the optimization parameters of the performance of large scale systems, concentrating instead on limited sets of components and players, adding little to our understanding of how large scale systems actually perform.
Continue reading The Tyranny of the Plausible →

The challenge of complexity has presented itself in our modern age and it can no longer be ignored. Unless specifically trained, when faced with complexity, humans generally perform poorly. Indeed, in the medical profession, Dr. Atul Gawande, author of the Checklist Manifesto, examined the complexity of modern medicine and was flabbergasted to discover that over the course of a year, the average physician’s office practice (excluding hospitals) required the evaluation of 250 different primary diseases, made more structurally complex by 900 other active conditions. Given the availability of 300 different medications and more than 100 laboratory tests, the physician’s workday has become an exercise in extreme complexity management.

The National Transportation Safety Board’s report on an airline accident at Chicago’s Midway Airport, as well as subsequent studies by experts, reveals once again the extraordinary problem of managing complexity in air carrier operations. Examination of the accident revealed that during the course of the mission in question, the flight crew was faced with nine distinct operational risk factors, a computer information system that was improperly designed, (human design error) , vital operational information that was either missing or unreliable, and finally, the unexpected onset of unstable flight conditions. That the flight crew had entered a zone of confusion during the final portion of the mission was painfully obvious. More distressing, however, was the fact that the modern crew station did not provide any meaningful help in complexity management., largely because the designers did not anticipate such a requirement.

And it gets worse. Dietrick Dorner, winner of the top science prize in Germany, along with his colleagues at the Max Planck Institute, devised a realistic simulation of “Tanaland” a region of west Africa near the Owanga River. Lanu is the town in Tanaland and is surrounded by orchards, gardens and forests. While Tanaland is not a real place, it accurately simulates real world conditions.
Continue reading Critical Thinking and the Challenge of Complexity →

This is the third in a series of articles that addresses critical thinking. Critical Thinking is a set of ideas and a defined process that is sweeping the nation. This article will cover some important preliminary concepts related to this body of knowledge and present some convincing evidence of how critical thinking can change your life.

Doctor Atul Gawande is a surgeon at St. Mary’s hospital in London England. His recent radio talks are compelling to say the least and have been reported in the Wall Street Journal as well as, no doubt, other outlets. His talks are entitled “The Century of the System”. They are being delivered as the BBC’s annual “Reith” lectures. This lecture to which I will refer to was delivered December 2nd. 2014.

Dr. Gawande and his colleagues were approached by the World Health Organization (WHO) several years ago with a project proposal to reduce the death rate associated with surgery. Initially they thought that this was some pie-in-the-sky, unrealistic request, but upon closer inspection they decided to give it a try. But of course skepticism prevailed: “how can one possibly do such a thing”?

So they decided to go ahead anyway because while all components of the “surgical system” were known, what was not known was how well they were all working together. To get a handle on exactly what to do they brought in a team from the airline industry that was familiar with this type of initiative to work with the surgical team.
Continue reading Critical Thinking: The Third Option →

his is the second in a series of articles on critical thinking. In this article we will look at some of the most pressing problems that cry out for much better problem solving abilities.

Ebola’s spread in west Africa was predicted. Now, no thanks to the CDC it is here. The secret service is so disorganized it can’t protect the very place it was designed to protect; instead exhibiting a new mission objective: restraint. Veterans died waiting for medical care from the very organization tasked with providing it. Instead they were being used as pawns in an elaborate enrichment scheme. Ambassador of the United States died in a horrific attack in Benghazi. Spokespeople then made the incomprehensible point that foreign service is dangerous and thus presumably more foreign service officials will be killed in the line of duty. The 9/11 commission revealed a number of federal agencies so inept as to leave one breathless. The predictable, albeit preposterous congressional response was to create yet another federal bureaucracy. The Internal Revenue Service has now morphed into the federal economic police force, indistinguishable from that depicted in the book 1984.

The above was pointed out by Daniel Henninger in the Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2014. He goes on to say that it is now past time to start thinking about how much can actually go wrong at so many federal agencies. And while the knee-jerk response is predictable—they all need more money—this is no longer acceptable to the American people.

Continue reading Critical Thinking in a Time of Confusion – Part 2 →

This is the first in a series of articles on Critical Thinking. Critical Thinking is a subject that is catching the imagination of more and more Americans such that one can say with increasing confidence that it is sweeping the nation. Subsequent articles will address key areas of this fascinating subject. The Moto for Critical Thinking is: Clarify-Reason-Win.

It has been called the most stunning primary upset in political history. David Brat, a professor at Randolph-Macon college in Virginia, a virtual unknown, soundly defeats house majority leader Eric Cantor by a whopping 55.65 to 44.4%. Davis Brat goes on to the general election where he is expected to win.

The magnitude of defeat over Eric Cantor is even more remarkable when one considers that David Brat had no money, little organization, no name recognition, few endorsements and depressing poll numbers-the most recent showed him about 34 % behind. Continue reading Critical Thinking in the Time of Confusion – Part 1 →